Point to Point

Technology and Me

Posts Tagged iPhone

Am I Wrong to Expect an “Open” Device?

Nov 10

Posted by Brad in Cellphone, Consumer Electronics, Musings | No Comments

A while back a friend of mine and I went back and forth on the distinction between a computer and an appliance. We could both point to obvious examples – a laptop is undoubtedly a computer, my dishwasher is undoubtedly an appliance (circuit boards and all). After some back and fourth, we hit an impasse: he thinks the iPad is a computer; I think it’s an appliance.

Without going into too much detail, it came down to device control. On my computer, I don’t have to check with some central authority for permission to do something. If I want to stream video from a server I own, that’s my business to try and figure out. If I want to run  peer-to-peer software for transferring copyrighted works or hack open the OS to lay bare it’s most core functions, that’s my business. Heck, I can wipe the whole thing and put on a new operating system. That’s obvious, it’s a computer. By contrast, I don’t expect my toaster to allow me to re-write its pizza algorithm and provide me the tools to do so. It’s an appliance.

I realized I had an expectation that my friend didn’t: I expected that if I own a computer, it is mine to do with as I please. Even if it conflicts with the pre-existing business relationships of the vendor. Or the network operator. Or even some ill-conceived international trade agreement. He didn’t think so. He felt that as long as a company was up front about what you are and aren’t allowed to do with the device, it doesn’t really matter. That’s why he felt the iPad (or iPhone, or iPodTouch) were all computers – they could install software and add new functions. I pointed out my XBOX could, and so could my DVD player. Heck, my router can do that.

For those curious, the crowd-sourced definition did us no good, since it applied to many things neither of us thought was a computer. However, for the sake of completeness, it is:

A computer is a programmable machine that receives input, stores and manipulates data, and provides output in a useful format.

–Wikipedia, entry for Computer

What has me up late wondering though – am I a dying breed, or just off in my definition? Am I wrong to think that I own the devices I buy? Will the next generation even realize what they’ve missed growing up in a world of appliances? Sure, there’s software out there that might mess up your phone or break your tablet, but right along side it is wonderful utilities that let you make free VOIP calls over a cellular data network, analyze security systems for flaws, or view video content that doesn’t come from a company-approved source. Even something as simple as shopping for products that the device maker deems immoral. Do our appliances deserve that much control over our choices?

But then I got an Android device. Sure, it has all the locked-down, appliance-like feel of an iOS device. But there’s one crucial difference:

android-sources

That little checkbox means the world to me. It means, “You’re an adult. Safety or freedom. Your choice.”

With that, there’s hope.

Tags: , ,

The iPhone Killer: Time

Nov 24

Posted by Brad in Cellphone, Consumer Electronics, Internet Technology | No Comments

As the iPhone has grown, every new Smartphone has been simultaneously lauded as an iPhone killer (by eager supporters), then blasted for failing to do so (by cynical bloggers). But that’s okay, I’ve finally figured out what I think will be the iPhone Killer. As you may have guessed from the title – Time. Time takes its toll on all things, and I think the iPhone is rapidly nearing the end of its position of prominence.

First off, the facts. While the iPhone is a popular device, depending how you slice your market demographics it ranges from “unquestioned overlord” to “mid-volume runner”. Yes, it has sold more than any single model, but most manufacturers don’t make only one model. In fact, may people are lying with statistics, treating the iPhone as only one model when in fact six exist in the US. There’s the 4gb and 8gb versions of the 2G, the 8 and 16gb versions of the 3G, and the 16 and 32gb versions of the 3GS. Blending all of these into one number, spanning multiple model years and often duplicate customers is misleading at best.

Apple’s competitors in the space aren’t exactly doing poorly, either. Many other mobile OSs have GROWN in size since the introduction of the iPhone. Symbian, Blackberry, and Windows Mobile have all increase their sales volume and revenues since 2007. On top of that, the removal of Palm’s PalmOS models from the market and the introduction of the Sprint-only WebOS models has left a gap filled largely by Apple and RIM. Even the aging Windows Mobile has grown, despite no major changes to the OS since the May 12 ‘05 release of Windows Mobile 5.

But all of that is not to discount the impact Apple has had. Devices are more powerful, rich application libraries are a requirement, and let’s not forget that their rapidly-dissolving relationship with Google gave rise to Android, which is already making significant gains in Apple’s tech-savvy elite, attracting developers and power-users and leaving Apple to scrape the bottom for new customers.

Take a look at the three images below. See what they say about the iPhone’s perception in the market. All images come from BrandIndex, via AppleInsider.com

att_customer_perception

First, this graph shows the perception of AT&T vs. Verizon, following the launch of the iPhone 3GS. Notice the sharp downturn in both companies, with AT&T’s being noticeably sharper. After the launch of the 3GS on June 18, people began to notice the struggling impact of a data-intensive device on AT&T’s aging, poorly-managed 3G network. Many users reported losing 3G coverage even while in areas AT&T was supposedly offering great coverage. While voice worked, AT&T’s data network was sorely lacking.

brand_perception_index

Next, take a look at the brand perception of Apple vs. Motorola leading up to the Droid launch, specifically among men aged 18+. Droid’s

 brand_recommendation_index

Lastly, look at the perception of AT&T vs. Verizon in the weeks leading up to the Droid launch. AT&T was never “liked”, but it hasn’t historically been much worse off than Verizon. Now there’s an almost 40 point difference – most likely attributable to the numerous “There’s a map for that” and “Droid does” ads. AT&T, the only source of the iPhone today, is tanking in popularity and public perception among adults. Why would you want a cool phone if it’s on the nation’s worst network?

When you put all these together (as I’m sure someone at Apple has) you see a pattern emerge: the iPhone isn’t really seen as a cutting-edge device anymore. It hasn’t fundamentally changed in 3 years. Sure, memory bumps are nice and getting the features that have existed on other phones for a decade is a welcome addition, but it’s not revolutionary anymore. In fact, for the tech-elite, the cutesy, childish UI is no longer a novelty, but a frustration. For top-tier developers, having a locked-down platform with an unpredictable, often irrational gatekeeper is unforgivable. And for everyone else? AT&T sucks more than the iPhone can make up for any longer. AT&T has not invested in its 3G networks (coverage or infrastructure), and iPhone users once proud of their device’s web-surfing capabilities are now behind, from a data coverage, screen resolution, and technology standpoint.

Will any one device crush the iPhone? I don’t think so. I’m pretty sure it’ll die the way Apple’s OS did – the death of a thousand tiny cuts. You’ll have a small group of users who are willing to trade the simplicity of a locked-down, highly limited environment for poor quality coverage, a less capable device, and a single form-factor.

If I had to guess though, Apple will probably react by trying to diversify, but it’ll be too little too late. The iPhone exclusivity contract will last a few more years, and they’ll release one or two more devices. Maybe one with a keyboard, maybe one with a bigger, sharper screen, but once they do that, the simple elegance of “every app on every phone” is gone.

Then they’ll release a CDMA version to Verizon and Sprint, but no one will care. Sure, there will be blog hype (as their is around a lot of what Apple does), but for the average consumer it won’t matter, and it won’t translate into big numbers. Mostly, you’ll get people who hate AT&T jumping back to their original provider (Verizon), or switching to Sprint for the unbelievably cheap internet coverage they offer.

Tags: , ,