So there’s this interesting pattern I’ve observed in the distribution of technology – things generally trickle down to consumers. What used to be expensive and elite will, over time, become inexpensive and commonplace. Cellphones, computers, digital sound systems, etc. I know that’s not much of a surprise to most of you, so here’s what I think is going to happen.
Media storage is getting cheaper and easier all the time: the rise of the home server. Over the next few years (certainly by the end of 2020) most homes will have some kind of centralized storage. Just like 10 years ago people didn’t have routers and switches in their homes, now almost everyone does. With a home network comes multiple comptuers. Multiple computers leads to all kinds of problems – syncing files between machines, duplication of data, ease of access, usage location, etc. All of this adds up to a solution early adopters are starting to notice. Why put music on every computer when you could just store it on some low-powered, high-storage computer? Why set up complex mechanisms for downloading, transferring, and storing content on a laptop when you could just as easily store it on some server you own?
The obvious solution is to store it on a remote server someplace, up in the “cloud” for easy access anytime. The problem is that people don’t trust the cloud yet – data gets lost, privacy and security aren’t well explained, and retreival times are limited. Sure, you’ll keep things you explicitly want to share with others, but not most things. You’ll never keep your collection of tax records, illegal mp3s, adult entertainment and pirated movies up on a server someplace. No, you want it in a little box, tucked away in your house.
Ideally, it’ll be the size and shape of a router. It’ll plug in and have a bunch of storage for local use, and you’ll be able to expand it anytime. Why not?
Routers with extensible RAID file systems: the next big thing in home networks.
#1 by Ted on February 24, 2009 - 11:38 am
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Also, the bandwidth isn’t there to put home servers in the cloud. Sure, you can stream mp3s all right, but Dad’s home video files can’t live there. Interestingly, I’ve been doing more photography work recently, and I’ve definitely noticed the difference between a 100Mb Ethernet connection and my ~50Mbps 802.11g connection. I’ve even been thinking of going gigabit on one or two of my home network switches.
It’s definitely something we’ll see more of. There already are routers that have a USB port for plugging in a USB SATA drive. They then just share out the drive using Samba. Microsoft also has some early projects based around this, with the 360 as the home-theater component, as I’m sure you’ve seen with your 360. (Even the PS3 will play files off my Samba and Windows Media systems, but it’s not as clean or as sexy as the 360 interface)
The interesting question is who’s going to make money on this. There’s definitely an opportunity there.
#2 by Brad on February 24, 2009 - 2:06 pm
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I absolutely agree with you that speed is a critical aspect. I’ve really enjoyed the gig network we have at home when moving large files.
I really think what you’ll see is a combination of people making money off this. Windows Home Server has some fantastic features that’ll be great for users, and as the WHS machines get cheaper, I think you’ll see them moving more into the home. You also might find users converting old desktops to “home servers” with big hard drives.
Check out WHS though. Interesting product, to be sure.